A dramatic increase in child obesity levels during the pandemic is set to cost the UK over £8bn, according to National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) researchers.

Researchers led by NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and the University of Southampton, in collaboration with researchers from the NIHR Imperial BRC, analysed data from the National Child Measurement Programme. They looked at BMI data on children in their first year of school (reception year, age four to five) and their last year of primary education (year six, age 10–11).

Obesity levels in children increased during Covid-19 restrictions because of:

  • A lack of physical activity
  • Unhealthy eating habits
  • Homeschooling and absence from school
  • Cancellation of organised sports
  • Increases in screen time
  • Changes in sleep schedules

Obesity went up from 10 per cent to 14 per cent in children aged four to five years during the pandemic, a rise of 45 per cent. After the pandemic, overweight and obesity rates returned to expected levels for this age group.

Overweight and obesity rates in school children aged 10-11 years went up from 35 per cent to 41 per cent during the pandemic. The rate declined after the pandemic, but was still four per cent higher than the expected pre-pandemic trend. This percentage increase translates to 56,000 children who are at greater risk of developing conditions such as diabetes, strokes, arthritis and some types of cancer. The figures suggest successful weight reversal in older children is more difficult.

Costs of obesity

The researchers projected the impact of child BMI trends on adult health measures to estimate the costs to society. They found that the increase in overweight and obesity prevalence in 10 and 11-year-olds could cost the NHS £800m. The cost to wider society could be at least £8.7bn. This total includes costs relating to reduced productivity and quality of life.

Keith Godfrey, a professor from the NIHR Southampton BRC and the University of Southampton, was one of the study’s authors. He said, “The surge in childhood obesity during the pandemic illustrates its profound impact on children’s development. Our projection that this will result in over £8.7bn in additional healthcare, economic and wider social costs is hugely concerning. Alongside the even higher costs of the ongoing epidemic of childhood obesity, it is clear that we need more radical new policy measures. This will help reduce obesity and secure wellbeing and prosperity for the country as a whole.”

Mark Hanson, co-author and emeritus professor also from the NIHR Southampton BRC, added, “Once established, obesity has proven to be difficult to reverse. Sixty to 85 per cent of children with obesity remain obese in adulthood, increasing their risks of future ill health. Our finding of a rapid return to pre-pandemic levels of overweight and obesity in the youngest children suggests new policies should target under-fives. This is likely to be an effective means of tackling the growing problem of childhood obesity.”

Obesity in deprived areas

Children from the most deprived areas are twice as likely to be obese than those living in the least deprived areas. This means they will face higher lifelong economic costs compared to wealthier populations.

Neena Modi, co-author and a professor from Imperial College London, said, “Obesity rates disproportionately affect children living in deprived communities - and the gap between the most and least deprived groups has widened over the past ten years.

“We need targeted interventions to bridge this alarming divide, especially in the under-fives where our study shows being overweight and obese can be reversed most readily. This will help ensure every child has an equal chance to grow up healthy.”

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